The first turn is... mine
For those of us who can remember the bad old days before the new book, there was one thing on every Dark Eldar player's wishlist. If only i could affect that one crucial roll... if only I could enhance my chance of going first.
Now, the heathen curses of those spiky elf pirate pioneers have been partially answered. The Baron, and Asdrubael Vect are both on hand to make sure you really are too fast to go last.
We know the mechanics of the bonuses. But how good are the bonuses really?
First, lets look at the default. If there are no bonuses to either side, clearly each player has a 50% chance of winning the roll for first turn. Each player then has the option of seizing the initiative, and a 16.6% chance to do so - obviously this remains balanced at a 50% chance each, assuming no shenanigans.
Before we go any further, let me assume that the opponent wants the first turn as well. If they don't, and you do, then you have the start of a beautiful relationship!
But let's assume that they do want to go first, perhaps out of spite for your own best-laid plans, or perhaps because smashing spiky-ears is a lot easier before they can start revving their engines. How far ahead will the Baron get you, in the first turn arms-race?
+1 to the dice roll is a pretty handy advantage. At first glance, we can easily see that the Baron will win the first turn roll 21 times out of 36, the opponent will somehow prevail 10/36, leaving 5/36 rolls drawn. Then, we realise that the 5/36ths of rolls that are drawn must be re-rolled, with the Baron's advantage still in play. So another 21/36 of these 5/36 draws go to the Baron, and so on. Ultimately, this puts the Baron's first turn figure at a shapely 67.7%, with his hapless victi- opponent, taking up the slack with 32.3% first roll wins.
Woof! Turning a 50/50 into a better than 2/1 proposition is not bad, not bad at all! But there is a downside - winning that first turn more often leaves his nibs more exposed to having the initiative seized from him. Instead of the opponent seizing 16.6% of 50% (8.33%), he will seize 16.6% of 67.7%, or 11.2%. Similarly, there will be fewer opportunities for the Lord Hellion to seize the initiative from his opponent, only 16.6% of 32.3%, or 5.36%.
So, bringing those figures together, your net chance of winning the first turn with the Baron is 67.7% - 11.2% + 5.36% = 61.9%. Still quite a bit better than average, but perhaps not as good as it seemed first time around.
The codex provides what seems an obvious remedy for this problem, in the person of the self-styled Lord of Commoragh himself, Asdrubael Vect. Employing him (or is he employing you?) in addition to the Baron will help you regain the initiative from your foe even more often; in fact 50% of 32.3%, or 16.15%, almost what a normal army expects to seize from an even first roll! This also means that if the two Lords decide to act together for you in a game, your enemy has only a 16.15% chance of winning the roll to go first, and then proceeding to do so.
Unfortunately, as we have seen, this is not the only way for him to go first, and taking into account the chance to have the initiative seized from you, the Vect-Sathonyx tag team has a 72.7% chance of going first.
But, does Vect really need the help? Recall that the Baron increases your exposure to enemy seizes, which Vect cannot stop, and reduces the opportunity for Vect to seize himself. If we were to leave the Baron to his own devices, and just take good-old-Asdrubael, we have a much starker equation: 50% to win the first roll, less 8.33% enemy seizes, plus 25% (!) Vect assisted seizes, equals a 66.7% chance to go first. Not quite as good as the combo, but certainly lets us know who the major player is.
This is not to go into the different deployment strategies required - for example, balls-out with Vect, playing for the seize? Neither does it go into the chance that your opponent will adopt a more defensive strategy in light of his failure to win the first roll, and decline to attempt the seize. Nor does it utilise the most complete method of victory, of subtly convincing your opponent that they do not in fact want first turn at all!
But, if the spiky-eared space corsairs really need that first turn boost, unlike the old days, now there are no excuses. It can be... mine!
