Among these, is the option of cheap haywire grenades that have suddenly become available to wyches. At half their previous cost they are suddenly a lot more attractive. But how effective are they?
The following table reflects the probability of achieving one or more of four levels of damage: Shaken or better, damaged (weapon destroyed or better), M-kill (immobilised or better), and the self-explanatory kill. Each figure is calculated by subtracting the probability of scoring 0 of these outcomes from 1, and therefore gives the chance of scoring at least the indicated result. The chance of failing entirely is therefore 1 - Shaken or better.
Results are illustrated against immobile vehicles, vehicles that travelled at combat speed (or immobilised dreadnoughts), and vehicles that travelled at cruising speed or more (and mobile walkers).
It can immediately be seen that chances of scoring a kill are relatively poor. The haywire grenade only penetrates on a 6, so this is not really its role. Instead, I prefer to look at the chance for damaging, as it will take only a couple of these results to cripple most enemy vehicles.
Immobile vehicles are easily pumped. Even 5 wyches with haywire have a 66% chance of immobilising permanently a vehicle that had the temerity to stand still in its last movement phase, and a squad of 10 even has a 45% chance of killing it outright. The astute will also recognise that the same fate may befall any other vehicle successfully immobilised by haywire attack. If the wyches cannot be cleared before the enemy assault phase, a free haywire attack will very likely be the end of the metal box in question.
Against vehicles moving at combat speed the numbers are a bit harder, but 5 wyches still have a 40% chance of scoring an immobilised result. This rises above 50% at 7 wyches, but does not reach 66% until 11 wyches are used. As this is too many to transport, I haven't bothered to reproduce that portion of the table.
Vehicles moving more than 6" are generally fairly safe from assault, and sadly haywire grenades are no exception. The best that could generally be hoped for here would be a shaken result - 5 wyches will still shake a fast moving vehicle 52% of the time, though they will cause lasting damage half as often.
By contrast, a ravager with 3 dark lances has a 45.9% chance of scoring an immobilisation or better, against any vehicle with AV12+. Albeit at any speed, from 36" away.
So, although I am not advocating taking haywire wych wenches in place of ravagers, I feel they have a place in the overall scheme of tank hunting.
But if they are taken, how many?
By dividing the probability of any given result with the points cost required to achieve it, we can gain an estimate of efficiency. The following table shows this efficiency for units of haywire wyches with between 5 - 10 members:
5 is the most efficient in all cases, with steep declines in shaking efficiency, but quite slow declines in M-kill and kill efficiency. As these latter two are generally more important than shaking vehicles, there is considerable leeway. Is 5 wyches enough? Efficiency is useless if your unit cannot be expected to perform its role. A unit of 5 performs well against stationary targets, middling against slow moving targets. A unit of 7 performs well against moving targets, but is overkill against stationary targets.
For me, I think it will be 5 wyches in a Venom. The lower profile (when it comes out) may help them fly under the radar, though they will cough up an easy kill point, and provide little assault support. I tend to play smaller point value games, and don't think I can spare a full unit of 10.
But let your own dark heart be the quide here. Whatever you choose, may your enemy's prize tanks roast like chestnuts!
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